The incoming Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to have “somewhat below-normal activity,” according to some of the nation’s leading weather researchers.
Colorado State University released its initial extended-range forecast on Thursday for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and lasts through Nov 30 – although some December hurricanes have been seen in recent years.
According to the report, the possibility of hurricanes making landfall is slightly below average compared to statistics between 1990 and 2001. The CSU research team called for 13 named storms, compared to the annual average mark of 14.4. Of those, six are expected to become hurricane and two could become “major,” meaning Category 3 or higher with winds reaching at least 111 miles per hour.
“We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below-normal activity,” researchers wrote in the report. “…We are forecasting a below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
As for some of the science behind the forecast, current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the coming months, with the potential for a moderate to strong El Niño during the peak of hurricane season. El Niño typically suppresses hurricane activity by increasing vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, making it harder for storms to develop and strengthen.
Sea surface temperatures also show a mixed pattern across the basin, with readings warmer than average in the western tropical Atlantic but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central regions.
Despite the outlook, CSU stresses that even a quiet season can be dangerous and all costal residents – including those who live in Mississippi – should prepare.
“As with all hurricane seasons, it only takes one storm making landfall to make it an active season,” researchers continued. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
Additional forecast updates from CSU will be released on June 10, July 8, and August 5.
In 2025, the Atlantic had 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. None of the hurricanes made landfall in Mississippi as it marked the first time in 10 years that the U.S. did not have a landfalling hurricane.
