For the third year in a row, the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above average.
Colorado State University issued its annual forecast on Thursday for the 39th year. They are predicting 19 named storms and nine hurricanes, four of which could be major.
In issuing the report, forecasters admit it’s impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April.
We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem. There is a general interest in knowing what the odds are for an active or inactive season. One must remember that our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.
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According to CSU:
Information obtained through March 2022 indicates that the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity above the 1991–2020 average. We estimate that 2022 will have 9 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 19 named storms (average is 14.4), 90 named storm days (average is 69.4), 35 hurricane days (average is 27.0), 4 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 3.2) and 9 major hurricane days (average is 7.4). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 135 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2022 to be approximately 130 percent of their long-term averages.
Hurricane season begins June 1 and run through November 30. However, that does not mean that a storm system can’t develop outside of those parameters.
