An area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is becoming better organized and could develop into a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico in the next day or two.
According to the National Hurricane Center, increasing upper-level winds would hinder additional development from that point as the system meanders in the southwestern Gulf. Regardless of formation, heavy rainfall is expected over a portion of southern Mexico during the next couple of days.
The Hurricane Hunters are expected to investigate the disturbance on Tuesday afternoon.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 11 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. Surface pressures are
falling in the region, and radar from Mexico indicates the system is
becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression
could form within the next day or two while the system moves slowly
northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. After that
time, increasing upper-level winds are likely to hinder additional
development while it meanders in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of formation, heavy rainfall is expected over portions of
southern Mexico during the next couple of days. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Bucci
