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Tropical disturbance forming in Gulf of Mexico on first day of hurricane season

A tropical disturbance over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has grown larger overnight, just in time for the official start of hurricane season.

According to the National Hurricane Center, a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form in the next few days, but conditions for additional development will increase by the weekend.

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system later today.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico have increased and become 
better organized during the overnight hours. Environmental 
conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development 
over the next day or so, and a short-lived tropical depression or 
storm could form over that time span as the system meanders over the 
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental 
conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional 
development as the system drifts southward, likely remaining 
offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, 
if necessary.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall could occur over 
portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional 
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

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